Saturday, April 18, 2009
elections and victory
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Note 16/12/12: given the problems that many people have with filefront I uploaded the installation files to a new hosting service, here's the link
https://www.box.com/s/hc6kkn0iafwlgh1ftfe5
Filefront will remain available, take this new link as a mirror.
I'm leaving this reply both in a new post and in the comments to the post "the end", and it applies to both Fubb and Skeptikon’s question: in order to win the elections you must look at one and only one parameter: the domestic public opinion. In order to be matematically sure that you'll be elected you must have at least 66% of the domestic public opinion on your side due to the rules explained at page 3 of the manual.
Let’s briefly review these rules: the electoral model represented in the game assumes that 40% of the people will in any case vote for you, 40% always for the opposition, 5% vote randomly because they decide at the last moment; what you have to bring to your side is that remaining 15% of swing voters, the most precious one in every election.
As you can see, you already know that 40% of the votes will be for you, and if you don’t want to count on that 5% of random votes you can only look at the swing voters. Since you win the elections if you have 50% + 1 of ballots it’s clear that you need to convince two thirds of the swing voters because that means adding another 10% of the electorate to you (two thirds of 15% is 10%).
The domestic public opinion value represent exactly how many swing voters have come on your side, or how much of that 15% of undecided electorate you have convinced. If the domestic opinion value is 20% you have added only 3% to the total number of people that will vote for you. Why? Because the calculation is
20% of domestic public opinion --> it means one fifth of 15% --> the result is 3%
Therefore you can be sure that only 43% of the votes will be for you. What happens if ALL the random votes are for you? 43% + 5% --> 48% and you’ll lose the elections anyway.
Another example: if you have conquered 50% of the public opinion you’ll be sure of having only 47,5% of the votes at the elections because
50% of domestic public opinion --> it means one half of 15% --> the result is 7,5% to be added to 40% of votes that you’ll have for sure --> 47,5%
The stakes are the swing voters, the swing voters are 15% of the total, the domestic public opinion represents how many swing voters you have convinced to vote for you.
Now, how can you convince the swing voters? There’s many ways, your foreign policy decisions will greatly affect the domestic public opinion. Some policies are unpopular and they’ll make you lose consensus among the swing voters, other decisions will be appreciated and your support will rise. Take a look at the bar showing the forecast for the domestic public opinion in the next turn, it will show you how your current decision will affect your image among the voters.
To conclude: to fulfill the electoral promises is a very good way to gain support but it’s not sufficient! Fulfilling the electoral promises will only grant you a bonus between 10 and 20% of the swing voters. If you look at the calculations you’ll see that 20% of swing voters means adding 3% to the total. So let’s say the domestic public opinion hates you because of your policy during your mandate, and let’s say you have 0% of domestic public opinion on your side. Even if you fulfilled the electoral promises and even if the maximum bonus is applied you’ll only have 20% of swing voters decided to vote for you, and that means adding only 3% of votes, so the total will be
40% of votes you’ll always have + 3% from the swing voters you convinced + random quantity up to 5%
and you’ll lose the elections.
You always have to nourish the domestic public opinion throughout the game to maximise your chances of victory. Every turn you’ll have to weigh your different options because a certain decision might give you a short term rise in popularity, but maybe it will make you lose U.S. support which grants you money and therefore the possibility to pursue your policy.
I hope to have clarified things a bit.
http://files.filefront.com/Conflict+MEPS/;13537306;/fileinfo.html
https://www.box.com/s/hc6kkn0iafwlgh1ftfe5
Note 16/12/12: given the problems that many people have with filefront I uploaded the installation files to a new hosting service, here's the link
https://www.box.com/s/hc6kkn0iafwlgh1ftfe5
Filefront will remain available, take this new link as a mirror.
I'm leaving this reply both in a new post and in the comments to the post "the end", and it applies to both Fubb and Skeptikon’s question: in order to win the elections you must look at one and only one parameter: the domestic public opinion. In order to be matematically sure that you'll be elected you must have at least 66% of the domestic public opinion on your side due to the rules explained at page 3 of the manual.
Let’s briefly review these rules: the electoral model represented in the game assumes that 40% of the people will in any case vote for you, 40% always for the opposition, 5% vote randomly because they decide at the last moment; what you have to bring to your side is that remaining 15% of swing voters, the most precious one in every election.
As you can see, you already know that 40% of the votes will be for you, and if you don’t want to count on that 5% of random votes you can only look at the swing voters. Since you win the elections if you have 50% + 1 of ballots it’s clear that you need to convince two thirds of the swing voters because that means adding another 10% of the electorate to you (two thirds of 15% is 10%).
The domestic public opinion value represent exactly how many swing voters have come on your side, or how much of that 15% of undecided electorate you have convinced. If the domestic opinion value is 20% you have added only 3% to the total number of people that will vote for you. Why? Because the calculation is
20% of domestic public opinion --> it means one fifth of 15% --> the result is 3%
Therefore you can be sure that only 43% of the votes will be for you. What happens if ALL the random votes are for you? 43% + 5% --> 48% and you’ll lose the elections anyway.
Another example: if you have conquered 50% of the public opinion you’ll be sure of having only 47,5% of the votes at the elections because
50% of domestic public opinion --> it means one half of 15% --> the result is 7,5% to be added to 40% of votes that you’ll have for sure --> 47,5%
The stakes are the swing voters, the swing voters are 15% of the total, the domestic public opinion represents how many swing voters you have convinced to vote for you.
Now, how can you convince the swing voters? There’s many ways, your foreign policy decisions will greatly affect the domestic public opinion. Some policies are unpopular and they’ll make you lose consensus among the swing voters, other decisions will be appreciated and your support will rise. Take a look at the bar showing the forecast for the domestic public opinion in the next turn, it will show you how your current decision will affect your image among the voters.
To conclude: to fulfill the electoral promises is a very good way to gain support but it’s not sufficient! Fulfilling the electoral promises will only grant you a bonus between 10 and 20% of the swing voters. If you look at the calculations you’ll see that 20% of swing voters means adding 3% to the total. So let’s say the domestic public opinion hates you because of your policy during your mandate, and let’s say you have 0% of domestic public opinion on your side. Even if you fulfilled the electoral promises and even if the maximum bonus is applied you’ll only have 20% of swing voters decided to vote for you, and that means adding only 3% of votes, so the total will be
40% of votes you’ll always have + 3% from the swing voters you convinced + random quantity up to 5%
and you’ll lose the elections.
You always have to nourish the domestic public opinion throughout the game to maximise your chances of victory. Every turn you’ll have to weigh your different options because a certain decision might give you a short term rise in popularity, but maybe it will make you lose U.S. support which grants you money and therefore the possibility to pursue your policy.
I hope to have clarified things a bit.
# posted by Marcus @ 12:37 PM 
