Sunday, March 19, 2006



I've added the modifiers that link the leadership strength with the public opinion and the overall relations. The sense is this: a strong leadership will influence the public opinion and it will convince it about its foreign relations with Israel. A weak leadership will be influenced by the public opinion about the same subject. With an average leadership the calculation is slightly more complicated but let's say it will influence or it will be influenced by the public opinion given certain conditions. What is the public opinion related to the Arab countries? it is not to be intended like in western nations, it is more or less the influence that the historical families, the factions, the local clerics have on the national government. Even if the Arab nations are not democracies it doesn't mean that political power is not shared among many people: on the contrary there's a complex web of relations (that neither experts can fully grasp) on various levels of society that mount a pressure on governments. This pressure is condensed in the expression "public opinion": it is a tremendous force that weak leaders can mount, and that strong men can influence. This week I'll add the modifiers for stability: in general, the wider the gap between public opinion and foreign relations as set by the leadership, the less stable will be that regime; the stronger the leadership, the more stable will be that regime. I hope my English is clear enough.

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